A farkon rabin na 2026, lithium iron phosphate (Lfp) masana'antu sun sami babban sake fasalin ƙima. Bayan fuskantar rarar iya aiki da asarar masana'antu gabaɗaya daga 2023 ku 2025, LFP kayan cathode da sel sun shiga cikin yanayin da ake jira dawo da farashin, ƙimar fasaha, da gyaran gefe.
Dangane da sabbin bayanai daga Afrilu 2026, masana'antu na yanzu suna da siffofi uku masu mahimmanci: “tsarin tightness a premium iya aiki,” “ba zato ba tsammani mai ƙarfi mai ƙarfi a buƙatar ajiyar makamashi,” da “inganta masana'antu da manufofin da suka jagoranci.” LFP yana canzawa daga a “madadin low-cost” ku a “babban aiki core abu.”
I. Yanayin Farashin: Ƙaddamar da Ƙirar Kuɗi-Plus zuwa Haɓaka Haɓaka
A cikin H1 2026, Sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta LFP ta ƙare shekaru biyu na gasar cikin gida mai rahusa kuma ta shiga tashar farashi mai haske.
A gefen kayan cathode, wanda ke motsa shi ta hanyar sake komawa cikin farashin lithium carbonate da ƙarin kuɗin sarrafawa, LFP kayan cathode sun ga farashin RMB 1,000-2,000 akan kowace tan da aka aiwatar tsakanin marigayi. 2025 kuma da wuri 2026, wakiltar mafi sauri kuma mafi faɗin daidaita farashin a ɓangaren baturi na lithium na tsakiya. A bangaren salula, wannan matsin farashin ya wuce a cikin Q1 2026. A cewar bayanan TrendForce, matsakaicin farashin prismatic LFP sel ya tashi zuwa RMB 0.38/Wh a watan Maris, kuma ana sa ran kula da a “barga amma m” yanayin a cikin Q2, goyan bayan ka'idodin farashi mai gudana.
Babban ma'anar da ke bayan wannan taron farashin duka biyu ne ke jagorantar su dalilai masu tsada da inganta wadata-buƙatun kuzari:
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Matsi mai ƙarfi a kan farashin albarkatun ƙasa: Tashin farashin gishirin lithium na sama, jan karfe, aluminum, da sauran karafa da ba na tafe ba, haɗe tare da haɓakar farashi a cikin albarkatun sinadarai kamar ƙarfe phosphate da lithium carbonate, sun tilasta masu kera batir su wuce ta farashi a ƙasa.
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Yarjejeniyar masana'antu a kan “juyin halitta”: Bayan asara a jere, manyan kamfanoni ba sa bin oda a makance tare da ƙarancin farashi. Ta hanyar haɗin gwiwar ƙungiyoyin masana'antu da dabarun farashi, sun gyara mummunar gurbacewar da aka yi a baya.
II. Cigaban Fasaha: Maɗaukakin Maɗaukaki Mai Girma da Tsananin Caji Yana Gina Motsi na Core
Babban fasali na H1 2026 shine cewa kasuwar LFP ba ta zama gasa iri ɗaya ba; bambance-bambancen darajar da gibin fasaha ya kawo yana ƙara fitowa fili.
1. “Maɗaukakin Maɗaukaki Mai Girma” Yana Ma'anar Ƙarfin Ƙarfi
Kasuwar a halin yanzu tana nuna sabani na tsarin “rarar gabaɗaya amma ƙarfin ƙimar ƙima.” Yayin da buƙatun makamashi na ƙasa ke ƙaruwa, kayayyakin gargajiya na ƙarni na uku (girman girman 2.4-2.5 g/cm³) ana samun cikas, yayin da ƙarni na huɗu da LFP mai girma mai girma (a sama 2.6 g/cm³) yana cikin babban buƙata. Manyan kamfanoni irin su Hunan Yuneng da Wanrun New Energy suna gudanar da cikakken iya aiki tare da matsayin da aka siyar don samfuransu masu ƙarfi., yana ba da umarni ga ƙima mai mahimmanci - RMB 1,000-2,000 akan kowace ton sama da daidaitattun samfuran.
2. Fasahar Yin Cajin Mai Tsanani Yana Cimma Cikakkiyar Ciniki
Farashin CATL Shenxing na ƙarni na uku matsananciyar cajin baturi, saki a watan Afrilu 2026, ya tura aikin LFP zuwa sabon matsayi. Baturin ya kai matakin kololuwar 15C (caji daga 10% ku 98% SOC kawai 6 minti kuma 27 seconds)-wani damar da aka yi la'akari da shi keɓantacce ga batir NMC. Wannan alama ce mai ci gaba inda LFP ya zarce wasu batura na NMC a cikin aiki mai sauri, yana faɗaɗa iyakokin aikace-aikacen sa a cikin motocin fasinja masu amfani da wutar lantarki.
3. Tsare-tsaren Fasaha na gaba
Al'ummomin ilimi da masana'antu suna ci gaba da tura iyakoki don magance ƙarancin zafin jiki na LFP da iyakokin ayyukan ƙima.. Misali, fasahar sintering mai saurin gaske (1,000°C, sarrafa ma'auni na biyu) wanda aka buga a watan Afrilu 2026 yana nuna hakan ta hanyar daidaita lahani mai yawa da yadudduka na carbon, Ƙarfin LFP yana inganta ta 25% ku 8c, rike iya aiki a sama 90% bayan 5,000 hawan keke - samar da ajiyar fasaha don batir masu caji mai sauri na zamani na gaba..
III. Bambancin Kasuwa: Ajiye Makamashi Yana ɗaukar Baton azaman Injin Ci gaban Farko
A cikin Q1 2026 data, Abubuwan da ake buƙata na batura masu ƙarfi da batir ajiyar makamashi sun bambanta, da ajiyar makamashi yana fitowa azaman babban ƙarfin ɗaukar ƙarfin LFP.
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Matsakaicin farfadowa a cikin kasuwar wutar lantarki: Yayin da tallace-tallacen NEV na cikin gida na kasar Sin ya nuna raguwar Q1, fitarwa ya kasance mai ƙarfi. Haɓakar farashin mai na ƙasa da ƙasa ya haɓaka ƙimar ƙimar NEVs, kuma karɓar batir LFP a ƙasashen waje yana ƙaruwa (Shigar Turai yana hawa daga 12.8%). Duk da haka, ci gaban gabaɗaya ya kasance in mun gwada da karko, yana nuna yanayin dawowa cikin jinkirin.
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Haɓakawa mai fashewa a cikin kasuwar ajiyar makamashi: Adana makamashi a halin yanzu shine mafi ƙarfi direban buƙatar LFP. Na gida ne ke tuƙa “iya aiki diyya” manufofi da karuwar buƙatun ikon ajiyar cibiyar bayanan AI a ƙasashen waje, jigilar makamashin lithium baturi a cikin Q1 2026 girma fiye da 120% shekara-shekara, tare da kamfanoni da yawa’ oda da aka ajiye har zuwa karshen shekara. Wannan al'amari na gaba-gaba na “kashe-koli ƙarfi” kai tsaye ya kai ga a “karancin wadata” don sel masu ajiyar makamashi na yau da kullun, tare da hauhawar farashin 30% cikin watanni shida.
IV. Canje-canjen Sashe na Bayarwa: Ƙarfin Ƙarfi da Haɗin kai-bangare
Mafi mahimmancin motsi-gefen wadata a cikin H1 2026 ya kasance kawar da iyawar da ba a daɗe da amfani da ita da kuma motsi zuwa ga “premiumization” a cikin sababbin zuba jari.
1. Siyasa “Janyewa” Yana Haɓaka Haɗin Masana'antu: Mai tasiri Afrilu 1, 2026, an kara rage adadin ragi na batirin lithium zuwa 9%. Wannan manufar kai tsaye ta matse ribar kanana da matsakaitan masana'antu waɗanda suka dogara ga ramuwar fitar da kayayyaki don tsira., hanzarta ficewa daga ƙaramin ƙarfi da tilastawa kamfanoni ko dai su kafa masana'antar kera a ketare ko kuma zuwa samfuran ƙarin ƙima..
2. Babban Bangaren Cross-Sector Ya Shigar “Rabin Biyu”: Sabbin kalaman fadada iya aiki ba a yanzu ke tafiyar da su ta hanyar kamfanonin kayan batirin lithium-play kawai amma ta hadedde phosphorus sinadaran Kattai. Kamfanoni irin su Xingfa Group da Yuntianhua, yin amfani da fa'idodin albarkatun phosphate na sama da kuma ikon sarrafa farashi, suna yin babban kutse cikin sashin LFP. Wannan yana nuna cewa gasa mayar da hankali ya koma daga tsarki “iyawar masana'antu” zuwa ga m gasa na “sarrafa albarkatun + hadedde kudin management.”
V. Summary da Outlook
Rabin farko na 2026 yana wakiltar wani muhimmin lokaci ga masana'antar LFP yayin da take tafiya cikin tudun ruwa mai zagayawa kuma ya kai matsayin juzu'i..
A cikin gajeren lokaci: Ƙaddamar da matsananciyar buƙatar ajiyar makamashi da tallafin farashin albarkatun ƙasa, Ana sa ran farashin LFP zai tsaya tsayin daka ko ya tashi a hankali. Lokacin hasara mafi wahala na masana'antar yana bayansa, kuma an saita manyan kamfanoni don ganin gagarumin ci gaba a cikin Q2 2026.
A cikin dogon lokaci: LFP yana canzawa daga “gasar tsada” zuwa gasa dual-track na “fasaha + farashi.” Maɗaukaki mai girma, matsanancin ƙarfin caji mai sauri, da manyan iya aiki ta salula (500Ah +) zai zama tsarin nasara na shekaru uku masu zuwa. Tare da manyan masu kera motoci na Turai suna haɓaka karɓar LFP da kuma fashewar kasuwar adana makamashi ta duniya., Matsayin LFP a matsayin a “babbar hanyar fasaha” an kafa shi da ƙarfi a cikin H1 2026, kuma ana sa ran shigar kasuwanta zai ci gaba da karuwa a duk aikace-aikacen ajiyar wuta da makamashi.